OPEC+ and the New Oil Order: Supply Strategy After the Hormuz Shock

Global oil markets have spent 2026 absorbing one of the largest supply shocks in decades. Since March, conflict involving Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil normally flows — as insurance costs for tankers transiting the strait have become prohibitive and shipowners have simply refused the risk. Brent crude jumped as much as 65% within weeks of the closure, and while prices have since eased from their peak, markets remain on edge.

OPEC+, the alliance of major oil producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has responded not by cutting output to support prices, as it has often done historically, but by steadily raising it. In June 2026, seven core OPEC+ members approved their fourth output increase since the Hormuz disruption began, lifting production targets by 188,000 barrels per day from July — continuing a gradual unwind of the group's 1.65 million barrel-per-day production cut first agreed back in 2023. The broader OPEC+ coalition has kept roughly 3.6 million barrels per day of cuts in place through the rest of 2026, suggesting a deliberate, calibrated approach: raise supply enough to cushion the Hormuz shock without over-correcting into an oversupplied market once the crisis eventually eases.