Financial Markets
Why the Euro Can't Clear $1.15: Inside the Fed-ECB Policy Divergence
EUR/USD has struggled to hold above $1.15 as the ECB and Federal Reserve pull in different directions - the ECB signalling it's done hiking after reaching 2.25% in June, the Fed facing market bets on further hikes under new Chair Kevin Warsh.
17 Jul
Monetary Policy
From Rate Cuts to Rate-Hike Bets: What Changed Before the Fed's July 29 Decision
Markets that spent early 2026 pricing Federal Reserve rate cuts have shifted toward bracing for possible hikes, even as the fed funds rate has held at 3.50-3.75% through four straight meetings.
17 Jul
Global Economy
AI's Trillion-Dollar Question: IMF Sees Growth Support, BIS Sees a Reckoning
Global AI-related investment is on pace to hit roughly $800 billion in 2026 and nearly $3 trillion cumulatively through 2028, per Morgan Stanley Research, with more than 80% of that spending still ahead.
17 Jul
Financial Markets
Ceasefire Collapses: Brent Crude Surges Back Above $85 as Hormuz Risk Returns
Brent crude jumped back above $84-87 a barrel and futures flipped into backwardation after the June 18 Iran-US ceasefire memorandum broke down in mid-July, reopening the Strait of Hormuz supply risk it had briefly closed.
17 Jul
Study
Understanding Inflation: How Rising Prices Are Measured and Why They Matter
Inflation is the general rise in the price level of an economy over time, measured most commonly through a Consumer Price Index (CPI) that tracks the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services.
13 Jul
International Trade
A Trade Policy Traffic Jam: Tariff Deadlines Collide in Late July 2026
A 10% blanket tariff imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 is set to expire automatically on July 24, 2026, under a hard 150-day statutory limit that the president cannot extend unilaterally.
13 Jul
Financial Markets
Brent Crude Falls Below $70 as Iran-US Ceasefire Reopens the Strait of Hormuz
Brent crude fell below $70 a barrel on July 1, 2026, after a US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed June 18 ended the conflict and reopened the Strait of Hormuz.
13 Jul
Inflation
Global Disinflation Has Stalled: Why G20 Inflation Is Rising Again in 2026
Global headline inflation is projected to rise from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026, breaking the post-pandemic disinflation trend, before easing to 3.9% in 2027, per the IMF's July 2026 WEO update.
13 Jul
Monetary Policy
The Fed's July Dilemma: Sticky Inflation Meets a Weakening Jobs Market
The FOMC meets July 28-29, 2026, after holding the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% at its June 17 meeting.
13 Jul
Development Economics
China's Great Rebalancing: Betting on Consumers as the Property Boom Fades
China's GDP growth is projected to slow to roughly 4.4-4.5% in 2026 as the property sector adjusts to structurally lower demand and consumers remain cautious.
13 Jul
Global Economy
IMF's July WEO: AI Economies Pull Ahead as $89 Oil Squeezes Importers
The IMF's July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update kept global growth projections nearly unchanged at 3.0% for 2026 and 3.4% for 2027.
12 Jul
International Trade
The Review That Isn't a Countdown: What USMCA's July 1 Deadline Actually Triggers
The USMCA, the roughly $1.8 trillion trade pact binding the US, Mexico, and Canada, underwent its first mandatory joint review on July 1, 2026.
12 Jul
International Trade
Washington's Next Tariff Move: Brazil Faces a 25% Section 301 Deadline on July 15
The USTR proposed a 25% Section 301 tariff on Brazilian goods on June 2, 2026, after finding Brazil's trade practices "unreasonable" and burdensome to US commerce.
12 Jul
Monetary Policy
The Bank of Japan Just Raised Rates to a Level Not Seen Since 1995 — And Signaled It Isn't Done
The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 1% on June 16, 2026, effective June 17 — the highest level since 1995.
12 Jul
Monetary Policy
The New Fed Chair's First Move: Five Outside Panels to Rethink How the Central Bank Thinks
On July 9, 2026, the Federal Reserve announced five task forces charged with reviewing how the central bank conducts monetary policy, each co-led by outside advisers working alongside Fed staff.
12 Jul
International Trade
July 2026 Is a Pressure-Test Month for Global Trade — Here's Every Rule Changing at Once
The US Section 122 tariff — a 10% blanket tariff on most imports — is set to expire July 24, 2026, alongside potential Section 301 findings and a possible Phase 2 of Section 232 semiconductor tariffs landing in the same window.
11 Jul
Global Economy
China's Growth Beat Expectations in Q1 — But the World Bank Says the Hard Part Is Still Ahead
China's economy grew 5.0% year-on-year in Q1 2026 (confirmed by China's National Bureau of Statistics), accelerating from 4.5% in Q4 2025, powered by high-tech investment and strong trade growth.
11 Jul
Monetary Policy
The ECB Just Raised Rates for the First Time in Three Years — Because a War, Not the Economy, Forced Its Hand
The ECB's Governing Council raised its three key rates by 25 basis points on June 11, 2026 — deposit facility to 2.25%, main refinancing to 2.40%, marginal lending to 2.65% — its first hike in three years.
11 Jul
Global Economy
IMF Cuts Global Disinflation Hopes: Growth Holds at 3%, but Inflation Forecast Jumps to 4.7% for 2026
Global growth projected at 3.0% for 2026 and 3.4% for 2027 — broadly unchanged from the IMF's April forecast, but below the 3.5% average seen in 2024-25.
11 Jul
International Trade
Washington's Next Tariff Move: Section 301 Hearings Land Just Before the Clock Runs Out
The US Trade Representative's public comment period on proposed Section 301 tariffs covering 59 countries and the European Union closed July 6, 2026, with a hearing held July 7.
4 Jul
Monetary Policy
New Fed Chair Draws a Line: No Rate Cuts Just to Please the White House
Speaking at the ECB's Sintra forum on July 1, new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said the central bank would not tolerate inflation staying above its 2% target, pushing back on pressure from President Trump for near-term rate cuts.
4 Jul
International Trade
The Ruling That Rewrote Tariff Power: Inside the 2026 Supreme Court Trade Decision
In February 2026, the US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that a 1977 emergency powers law does not authorize the president to impose broad, open-ended tariffs, striking down a central pillar of recent US trade policy.
4 Jul
Global Economy
The Strait of Hormuz Shock: How a 10-Million-Barrel Supply Cut Is Reshaping the Global Growth Outlook
The World Bank describes the Strait of Hormuz disruption from the 2026 Iran war as the largest oil supply shock on record, with an initial cut of about 10 million barrels per day through a chokepoint carrying roughly 35% of global seaborne crude oil.
3 Jul
Global Economy
OPEC+ and the New Oil Order: Supply Strategy After the Hormuz Shock
Iran-linked conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz since March 2026, disrupting roughly a fifth of global oil flows and sending Brent up as much as 65%.
2 Jul
Development Economics
How Population Shapes Growth: The Economics of an Ageing World
By 2030, one in six people worldwide will be over 65, with the OECD projecting an 8% working-age population decline by 2060 and a 3-point-of-GDP rise in pension and health spending.
2 Jul
Monetary Policy
The Race to Digitise Money: Where Central Bank Digital Currencies Stand in 2026
India's e-Rupee circulation grew 334% to about ₹10.16 billion by early 2025 — still a rounding error next to UPI's monthly transaction value.
2 Jul
Labour Economics
Labour Market Polarisation: How AI Is Rewriting Who Wins and Who Loses at Work
Generative AI is automating cognitive, language-based tasks long considered 'high-skill' — breaking the old pattern where automation mainly hit routine, middle-skill jobs.
2 Jul
International Trade
The Cost of Decoupling: What US-China Economic Fragmentation Really Costs the World
The WEF estimates a full US-China/West decoupling could cost global GDP up to $6.9 trillion, while current fragmentation has already cost $213-307 billion.
2 Jul